A Tale of Two Indices: What the Dickens is going on?

Welcome to the topsy world of property price reporting, where two headlines can both be true at once… even if neither one offers the full picture.

Time to unpack what’s going on...

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Where Did News About a 1.2% Property Price Fall Come From?

The figure we referenced last week came from Rightmove’s latest House Price Index. It was widely picked up in the national press, and hence it felt right to report it – although mainly, my motivation was to challenge the headlines that were using their report as a reason to claim a property crash was either coming, or was here already.

Rightmove’s index captures a truly broad slice of the UK housing market, as most UK properties are advertised on this portal – and so for this reason, the Rightmove House Price Index does bear monitoring. 

It was here that the 1.2% fall in asking prices in July was reported – which was noteworthy for two reasons; firstly, it was the steepest fall in July for over 20 years, and secondly because it did follow an admittedly more modest 0.3% drop in June – a month that does normally see prices increase slightly (by an average of 0.4% over 9 of the past 10 years). 

Crucially, however, Rightmove’s index is based on asking prices on new listings. It is not reporting what buyers are actually paying. 

It did not mean therefore that actual house values had fallen by 1.2%. Perhaps it indicated that sellers have tempered their pricing a little at the point of listing; perhaps it simply reflects a random occurrence where fewer large, expensive listings came to market than normal, but greater numbers of smaller, less valuable properties did.

The point of our piece last week was to say: let’s just take stock and look at the bigger picture – because being the ‘steepest’ drop doesn’t mean that drops in July are unusual – in fact, they are perhaps to be expected. Overall, our data shows that market sentiment remains strong, with many experts predicting further base rate cuts to come this year. This should bolster the longer-term outlook for the market as buyer affordability eases.

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What is the Case for Property Prices Increasing by 0.6%?

Fast-forward a few days from the release of Rightmove’s House Price Index and a 1.2% property price drop, and we found ourselves reading instead about a 0.6% rise in property values in July, as reported by Nationwide.

Are we confused? We needn’t be. 

The reality is that these two indices are reporting on different things.

Nationwide’s index is based on mortgage approvals for house purchases. It reflects agreed sale prices where a mortgage has been secured – and also worth noting, this is where a mortgage has been secured through Nationwide. 

In a sense then, this is more closely aligned to what buyers are actually paying for properties – with the caveat of course that it relates only to buyers taking a Nationwide mortgage. 

Nationwide’s sample size therefore is smaller than Rightmove’s, given it only includes properties where a Nationwide mortgage is used. Nevertheless, it gives us insight into buyer activity and agreed values at the point of sale. As a representative cross-section of society, it certainly provides us a useful tool when it comes to working out market trends.

So while Rightmove said “asking prices are lower this month than last month”, Nationwide has effectively said “buyers are paying slightly more this month than last month”.

Both statements can be true at once.

Neither tells us what average prices properties are actually completing at. For that, we’ll have to wait for the Land Registry data, which lags by several months but gives us the most accurate record of completed transactions.

To know what prices really have done in July 2025, we’ll probably have to wait until January or February 2026, once the bulk of those sales not only complete but also get recorded.

Is Monthly Property Data Useful or Misleading?

Monthly data allows us to spot emerging patterns and trends, which helps us better advise the clients whose properties we are instructed to sell, and comes into the research we undertake when consulting with potential clients about marketing.

These monthly figures can sometimes be newsworthy – but at times, the headlines that media outlets run with can seem sensational to us (let alone the general public!), and the projections of the journalists reporting the story are often little more than conjecture; worse still it is sensationalised conjecture.

Monthly data really can offer a temperature check – but that is not the same as a diagnosis. In other words, we get a snapshot, but not the full picture. And, as we’ve seen, the picture can look very different depending which way the camera is pointing.

We do look at monthly statistics, but it is important to also combine with annual figures to get a better sense of the direction of travel, of cause and effect, of the wider landscape; whatever it may be.

Prices may be 1.2% down or 0.6% up in a single month; in both cases, they would strike me as being within a margin of error. Over 12 months, though, maybe even over six months or dare I suggest three months, we can establish a more rounded story.

But then again, it is also not only about whether the data is monthly, quarterly or annual; it is also important to look at ‘what’ and ‘where’. Are we looking at ‘Asking Prices’ or ‘Sale Agreed Prices’ or ‘Completions’? Are we accounting for volume of sales? Speed of transactions? Are we establishing external environment – social, political, economic factors, etc.? What geography does the data come from, and what is the source? National, or local; official government, or commercial – and is it whole of market or part? If part, is it nevertheless representative?

These are all things we need to consider when pulling these figures apart and offering our views. It’s a lot to think about!

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So… What is Happening in the Twickenham Property Market?

We should look at both the broader national headlines as well as digging into local data to unpack the story when it comes to selling property in Twickenham in 2025. 

• Inflation is up and down, but having increased in June from 3.4% to 3.6%, it has nevertheless eased greatly (as far as markets are concerned) since those 6-11% levels seen during 2023 and into 2024. Eventually it did fall all the way back down to the 2% level, and even briefly dropped below, to allow the Bank of England base rate to fall and, accordingly, mortgage rates to soften. Nevertheless, further cuts have been slower to happen since rates began to rise again, and affordability is still hampered by mortgage rates remaining elevated compared to pre-2022 levels.
• Affordability is stretched, especially for first-time buyers, but cash buyers too, particularly since the stamp duty holiday ended on March 31.
• The number of properties for sale is high as we hit the summer holidays, leading to more choice for buyers – and that can lead to properties being priced more keenly, which may explain the 1.2% drop in Asking Prices recorded by Rightmove.
• Buyer sentiment is tricky to determine. Buyers may be more cautious but they are still active. Maybe 10 or 15% of Brits will be away in any given week over August – that is still 85% or 90% of people remaining in place, and the serious buyers amongst them are still seriously buying. Nationwide’s reported 0.6% purchase price increase in July is positive. We are not struggling to find buyers for properties, but the caveat is that properties must be priced correctly. Anything over-inflated is likely to sit still.

Despite the noise and the headlines, the market is very much behaving in line with broader economic conditions and seasonal expectations. 

There are 1,120 properties available for sale in the London Borough of Richmond Upon Thames according to property data site Home.co.uk. A week ago, that number was 1,155. 

It is a small drop in volume – but it is relevant that it is a drop nevertheless. 

It means some of that bloating of the local Twickenham property market is easing off – fewer houses for sale but still an active pool of buyers buying, usually feels like a hotter market-place – even though Estate Agents would always appreciate more properties for sale to get stuck into!

Looking at official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), we can see that prices here remain ahead. 

The average sale price here is £790,000, provisionally 2.3% up year on year, and that being ahead of London as a whole, which has flatlined or dropped in some boroughs.

Rents too, are up, with the average rent now being £2,222 per month, and that being a hefty 12.8% increase since June 2024.

There was a fallout from the post-pandemic property boom. That is still working its way through the system. Prices were inflated, borrowing was cheap which fuelled the market, and therefore demand was supercharged. 

Since then we’ve seen correction, recalibration, and now perhaps we are heading towards a little more stability.

These news headlines that ask “is the market crashing?” are missing the point. The question to ask – and the one that it is our job as local Twickenham and Teddington Estate Agents to answer – is “what is the new normal?”

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Why Local Insight Matters As Much As National Data

At the end of the day, house price indices are only part of the story, and the news outlets that might report them are only looking at numbers on spreadsheets and graphs.

They can’t tell you what your home is worth in your street, with your unique features, and they don’t know what local buyers are really paying right now. We do – because we are negotiating sales with them each week, each month.

That is the point about local agents. We don’t just read about the market; we live in it! We are in and out of local Twickenham homes every day. We speak to different local buyers and sellers every few minutes of the day! We know what properties are getting offers, which ones are sitting still and why, and of course we also know about those that go under the radar. Rightmove is good – but it won’t tell you everything.

Likewise, no house price index can give you the kind of insight that comes from being hands on, sleeves rolled up, at the coal face… or whatever other analogy we might want to use to convey that we are knee deep and getting stuck into the local Twickenham property market every day. We live and breathe it.

So if you want the real picture, and not just the headlines, we should have a proper talk about things. We can help you understand your property’s true place in today’s market, based on experience, not just extrapolation of data. We can not only answer the questions you want to ask, but we can solve the problems you need solutions to. 

That’s what local estate agency is all about.