HOM-B
June 19, 2025
National headlines say prices are dropping – but is that true here at home?
HOM-B
There has been a bit of noise made these past few days about house prices dropping, with news outlets everywhere from The Guardian to the Financial Times picking up on figures from a new report released by Rightmove at the end of last week.
The data shows that average property prices have dropped by 0.3% this June. It may seem like a tiny fraction, but nevertheless it is unusual for this time of year, as prices in June typically rise by 0.4% on average, according to their figures. It seems it is enough to cause a stir in the national press.
Before we get too animated, however, there are a few things to consider. A little context is everything...
The trouble with the term ‘property prices’ in these sorts of news stories, is that without context, you don’t necessarily know what prices are being referred to.
In this case, for example, the newspaper headlines speak of ‘property prices dropping’ – but actually, the Rightmove report that these stories refer to is describing ‘asking prices’ – the price that properties are listed for – not the sold prices that get lodged with Land Registry and find their way into Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.
‘Asking Prices’ arguably can mean ‘property prices’… but they don’t mean ‘property values’. And property values are of more concern to most homeowners.
0.3% on an average UK ‘asking price’ of c. £378,000 therefore looks more like a slight dip, in that context.
And when it comes to it, it is also a slight dip that has followed a very strong first quarter, where asking prices surged ahead – largely as buyers came out in more force than normal to beat the stamp duty hike at the end of March. Property purchasers rushed to complete before the deadline, which brought forward a wave of activity and added some short-term heat to the market earlier this year.
It means that what we’re seeing now isn’t a collapse by any means – in case anyone worried that 0.3% represented one. It is more like a recalibration.
In fact, the bigger story is the sheer number of properties that have continued to come to market over the two and a half months since. Market confidence has held up remarkably well, as the expectation had been for the market to stall and drop once stamp duty increased.
The opposite has happened – and that is despite inflationary pressure (increased cost of living, council tax, energy price cap and more), which has come on top of the stamp duty increase.
In fact, given less air-time (or column-inches) but, nevertheless, published in the very same Rightmove Report, was data showing May 2025 to have been the busiest sales month since March 2022 – with sales up by 6%, and buyer enquiries up by 3% compared to the same period last year.
Property listings however are up even further, by 11%... a great sign that seller sentiment is also strong, but it does mean that there would seem to be more properties for sale than there are buyers in the market. The buyers that are out there now have more choice, and that is likely to put some gentle downward pressure on asking prices nationally.
Which leads to another question, of course: a national discussion is well and good, but what about property here in Richmond, Twickenham and Teddington?
Interestingly, while the national headlines talk of falling prices, here in Richmond upon Thames it’s a different story entirely.
According to the property data website home.co.uk, the average asking price in Richmond upon Thames has risen – by a whopping 8%!
So, in just one month, the Richmond Borough property market is not just running contrary to the story in the national press, but is also far, far outshining it!
So, something to shout about?
No. No, not in my opinion, honestly – and mainly because I think it’s a bit of nonsense to judge any market by the performance a single month.
Let’s take a look at the numbers and apply a bit of scrutiny: I can see very quickly that a number of large, expensive detached properties have come to market locally, at an average asking price of over £2million, in greater numbers than normal – and that as a result, the average asking price of detached properties went up by 10% last month. So in a single month, one sector of our local market has disproportionately affected the rest… none of which looks negative, by the way – but these statistics tell a story that might not really be there in reality. Maybe there’s a story. Maybe it’s just circumstances.
And that is why context matters
Nevertheless, it is always interesting to keep an eye on things, so here is a snapshot view, looking at a few figures to contemplate regarding the London Borough of Richmond property market, as of June 19, 2025 (data from https://www.home.co.uk/)
Crucially, asking prices only tell a part of the story – something that I alluded to earlier.
The latest sold price data shows that average property prices in Richmond upon Thames are around 3.5% higher than a year ago, according to data from the Office for National Statistics from April this year (land registry data, which feeds the ONS data, lags behind by two to three months). The average asking price might be pushing £950,000… the average sold price over the last 12 months tells us more, and that price was £790,000.
As I said previously, judging the property market over one month, doesn’t tell us much. Looking at year-on-year figures tells us much more.
As a headline figure, property prices across Richmond, Teddington and Twickenham have risen on average a little more than the average for London as a whole, which saw property prices rise by 3.3% over the same 12 months.
The national picture was more positive – prices increased by 6.4% over the same period. So even though prices might have fared a little better than elsewhere in London over the past year, we have to acknowledge that they are behind the growth curve being seen elsewhere in the country as a whole.
That being said, here in Richmond upon Thames we have a much higher density of higher priced properties than other parts of the country, proportionately speaking. Much as I know we tend to want to see house prices increasing, there is certainly room for other parts to catch us up a little.
All that being said, I would still caution ahead of time that we may yet see a dip when the May-June data does land in a month or two. It would be a reflection of the post-stamp duty adjustment, when buyers took a breath and a step back, and when a higher number of prices were renegotiated than normal, as buyers’ purchase costs increased. The sales that completed since then may bring with them a slightly false dip, that in my expectation will gradually correct itself through the summer and into the early autumn data.
The local market is still in positive shape. However, I do recognise the swell of properties for sale and the general trend that buyer numbers are starting to drop off a little. This is a feature of most summer markets – but perhaps, with an expedited spring market due to that race to beat the Stamp-Duty Deadline on March 31st, summer might just have come a little early.
In a more competitive market, pricing your home accurately matters more than ever.
As I wrote about in a recent blog, there are two sentences I seem to say multiple times a day: ‘Your property can only sell for what someone is willing to pay for it’, and ‘a property will always find its true value within the current market when viewings and offers happen…’
If you don’t encourage viewings, you won’t encourage offers!
If you are thinking of selling a property in Richmond, Teddington or Twickenham, I would recommend asking yourself the question: is it really worth taking a gamble on an exaggerated price, on the basis that you can always reduce later? Or would you rather go to market with the right price from the off, attract the right buyers from day one, and move with confidence – quickly and proactively, without wasting time?
Would it make a difference to know that, according to Rightmove, ‘homes which attract an enquiry on the first day of marketing are 22% more likely to find a buyer than homes which take more than two weeks to receive their first enquiry’?
It does bear thinking about, especially when the average time on market for those properties that are selling stands at 130 days currently…
Here at Bartlett and Partners, we’re seeing a willing and active market. The right price, the right presentation, and a good local agent with real industry and market knowledge still makes all the difference.
(I would say a top class marketing video and nailing a social media marketing launch too, incidentally; check the films out on this link here to see what I mean…)
If you're unsure where your property sits in today’s market, do please get in touch. There is never any pressure, and nor is there any hot air or smoke blown – just a friendly chat and honest advice from someone who knows Richmond inside out.
Darren Bartlett
HOM-F
Jun 2025
Darren’s insights
“Your Home Is Worth What Someone Is Willing to Pay For It”
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Darren’s insights
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