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Darren’s insights

Will The End of the Stamp Duty Holiday Mean House Prices Fall?

Recent data has shown an average 10.5% rise in national property prices, with even higher numbers in several regions. Demand has outstripped supply in most parts of the UK housing market this year, and this will continue until the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) holiday comes to an end on the 30th of September. But whilst this growth in property values is slowing, the price of individual homes is going up, with many desperate to complete before the end of September and benefit from the £250,000 tax-free threshold.

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We know of many properties, particularly those with outside space and flexibility for working from home, that have been the subject of bidding wars between prospective buyers, and we believe this to continue for some time still.

Demand is remaining high in the luxury high-value property segment of the market. Homes selling for £1.5million plus, remains stable, especially amongst homebuyers with the desire to escape the city.

But, from 1st of October, when the Stamp Duty Land Tax rate returns to its normal limit of £125,000, things are likely to settle down again.

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What Will Happen From 1st Of October?

There’s some debate about how the end of the Stamp Duty holiday will affect the property market. While some reports suggest that house prices will fall, experts believe other factors will prevent this from happening.

According to the Guardian, Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, described the property markets as “on fire”. He said he still expects to see high demand, especially as some households have increased their savings during lockdown.

Halifax adds lifestyle changes could continue to drive demand in the coming months. Homeowners are looking for bigger properties as they seek more space to work from home long term. It’s a lifestyle shift that “might warrant an increased willingness to spend a higher proportion of income on housing,” says the lender’s managing director, Russell Galley.

The combination of these factors means it’s unlikely that house prices will start to tumble when the Stamp Duty holiday ends. Yet, demand and house price rises could begin to level off.

If you would like to chat more about the local property market in your area, or to learn more about market trends and what that means to you, please feel free to contact us any time. We are here to help.

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